Hard to believe the prep football playoffs are already here. Class AA wraps up it's regular season tomorrow, while all of the other classes will be playing first round playoff games this weekend.
8 out of the 14 teams in AA make the playoffs. Here's a look at the standings for the teams who have already clinched a playoff birth or are still alive heading into tomorrow's action, as well as who they play in their final game. Teams with a "C" next to them have already clinched.
CLASS AA FOOTBALL STANDINGS (AS OF 10/30/08)
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1. C- HELENA CAPITAL 9-0, Flathead
2. C- BILLINGS WEST 8-1, Skyview
3. C- GREAT FALLS CMR 8-1, Great Falls
4. C -HELENA HIGH 6-3, @ Bozeman
5. C -KALISPELL FLATHEAD 6-3, @ Capital
6. C -BILLINGS SKYVIEW 5-4, West
7. C -GREAT FALLS 5-4, CMR
8. MISSOULA BIG SKY 5-4, Glacier
9. MISSOULA SENTINEL 4-5, Hellgate
Helena Capital is the only team to have clinched it's seed. Let's take a look at the possibilities for the teams in our viewing area:
FLATHEAD
The Braves have already clinched their 11th postseason trip in the last 13 years, thanks to the current 6 game winning streak they're riding. They could end up as high as the #4 seed with a win @ Capital and a Helena loss @ Bozeman. That would put the Braves at 7-3 and the Bengals at 6-4. Helena holds the tiebreaker over Flathead thanks to a week 2 victory over the Braves. Flathead can't end up any lower than a #6 seed.
BIG SKY
The formula for the Eagles is pretty simple. Win and you're in. No team has a wider range of possibilities. Losses by Great Falls, Skyview, Flathead, and Helena combined with a Big Sky win tomorrow would vault the Eagles all the way up to the #4 seed. Big Sky would win tiebreakers over Flathead and Helena since they beat both teams head-to-head.
However, a loss to Glacier could spell disaster for the Eagles if Sentinel wins. Head-to-head losses to Skyview, Great Falls, and Sentinel mean the Eagles would lose every tiebreaker if they end up losing to Glacier and finishing with a 5-5 record. If they lose, they'd either be the #8 seed (If Sentinel loses) or out of the playoffs (If Sentinel wins).
SENTINEL
It's been a great season for the resurgent Spartans, but the clock may strike midnight on this Cinderella story tomorrow. The loss to Great Falls two weeks ago was a killer, hurting the Spartans in the tiebreaker scenarios.
Ties are broken first by head-to-head record, and then by point differential against common opponents. According to the MHSA, the highest point differential from a single game is 14 points, no matter how much a team won or lost by. This is done to prevent teams from running up the score. For example, Sentinel's 34 point win over Butte only counts as a +14, while the 35 point loss to Capital only counts as a -14.
We know that the Spartans can get in with a win and a Big Sky loss, but is there any way they can get in if the Eagles win? Let's take a look at the possible scenarios::
1) TIE BETWEEN SKYVIEW, GFH, AND SENTINEL (ALL 5-5)
COMMON OPPONENTS: WEST, SENIOR, CMR, BIG SKY,
POINT DIFFERENTIALS: SENTINEL (-9), SKYVIEW (+14), GFH (-2)
IN THIS SCENARIO, THERE IS NO WAY FOR SKYVIEW TO BE ELIMINATED BECAUSE OF THE 14 POINT CAP ON +/-. SENTINEL STAYS AT -9 REGARDLESS OF WHAT HAPPENS IN THEIR GAME BECAUSE HELLGATE ISN'T A COMMON OPPONENT FOR ALL THREE TEAMS. IF SKYVIEW WINS THIS THREE TEAM TIEBREAKER, THE TIE BETWEEN SENTINEL AND GREAT FALLS WOULD BE BROKEN BY HEAD-TO-HEAD RECORD. THE BISON BEAT THE SPARTANS, AND WOULD GET THE #8 SEED, WHILE SENTINEL WOULD BE ELIMINATED.
2) TIE BETWEEN SENTINEL AND SKYVIEW (BOTH 5-5, GREAT FALLS 6-4)
COMMON OPPONENTS: WEST, BUTTE, CMR, BIG SKY, SENIOR,
CAPITAL, GFH, HELLGATE
POINT DIFFERENTIALS: SENTINEL (-23), SKYVIEW (+10)
IN THIS SCENARIO, SENTINEL HAS NO WAY OF CATCHING SKYVIEW BECAUSE OF THE 14 POINT CAP ON POINT DIFFERENTIALS. EVEN IF THEY BEAT HELLGATE BY 14 AND SKYVIEW LOSES TO WEST BY 14, SENTINEL WOULD BE A -9 AND SKYVIEW WOULD BE A -4. SKYVIEW WOULD WIN THE TIEBREAKER AND GET THE #8 SEED, WHILE THE SPARTANS WOULD BE ELIMINATED.
3) TIE BETWEEN SENTINEL AND GFH (BOTH 5-5, SKYVIEW 6-4)
IN THIS SCENARIO, SENTINEL WOULD BE ELIMINATED BECAUSE THEY LOST HEAD-TO-HEAD TO GREAT FALLS. THE BISON WOULD GET THE #8 SEED
To sum it all up, Sentinel needs a win and a Big Sky loss to earn it's first playoff birth since 1989. Big Sky is in with a win, and can only be eliminated if they lose and Sentinel wins. Should be a great day of football!
~Varun
varun@maxmontana.com
