#5 Montana vs. #11 Cal Poly. Tomorrow night at 7. It's about time. Here's a look at the keys to the game, and a prediction (I know it's a fool's errand, but it's fun).
KEY MATCHUPS
1) GRIZ RUNNING BACKS VS. CAL POLY DEFENSE
It looks like Thomas Brooks-Fletcher, Andrew Schmidt, and Chase Reynolds will all take turns carrying the ball, with the most productive back getting the majority of the workload in the second half. The Mustangs D allowed a measly 27 yards rushing on 23 attempts to San Diego State last week. SDSU averaged just under 104 rushing yards per game in 2007, so that output was well below last season's average. Because they were able to shut down the running game, Cal Poly dominated the time of possession 38 minutes to 22 minutes. Head Coach Bobby Hauck said this week, "We've got a veteran offensive line, which should allow us to run the ball. If we can't run the ball then that (time of possession advantage) could happen again this week. Our defense will be on the field against that particular offense all day long and it'll be a long day for us." If the Griz don't have success on the ground in the first half, it will be interesting to see if the coaches stick with the run (as they've been known to do) or air out.
2) GRIZ SECONDARY VS. CAL POLY WIDE RECEIVERS
Veteran safeties Colt Anderson and Shann Schillinger will be flanked by true freshman cornerback Trumaine Johnson and junior college transfer Andrew Swink. The safeties will be counted on to help stop the Mustangs option rushing attack, led by senior quarterback Jonathan Dally, which means the inexperienced corners will sometimes be on an island against star Mustangs wide receiver Ramses Barden. If the safeties over-commit to the run and Barden gets behind the corners a couple times, it could end up being a long day for the Griz secondary.
3) GRIZ LINEBACKERS VS. CAL POLY RUNNING GAME
The Griz had major problems stopping Wofford's option running game in last year's opening round playoff loss, giving up 333 yards on the ground to the Terriers. And that was with veteran linebackers Kyle Ryan, Tyler Joyce,.and Loren Utterback on the field. As Hauck mentioned, Cal Poly is far more athletic than Wofford and they also bring an explosive passing game to the table (Wofford only threw the ball 7 times). The Griz went back to the drawing board over the offseason to try to figure out a better way to stop the option. Daly led the Mustangs with 763 yards rushing last year, and they also had 3 different running backs gain over 400 yards on the ground. Griz LB's Brandon Fisher, Shawn Lebsock, and Tyler Corwin will need to get off blocks and be sure tacklers if the Griz are to have more success against the option this time around.
PLAYERS TO WATCH
1) GRIZ- SENIOR QUARTERBACK COLE BERGQUIST
I've documented this before in this space, but Bergquist looks ready to have a monster year. It's his fifth year in the Griz system and he looks very comfortable in the offense. He also added about 15 pounds of muscle this offseason and his throws have been strong and accurate during fall camp. With the running game a major question mark for the Griz, look for Bergquist to hook up with his pals Mike Ferriter and Marc Mariani early and often.
2) CAL POLY - SENIOR WIDE RECEIVER RAMSES BARDEN
This guys is the real deal. Hauck called him a definite first day NFL draft choice, and he's got that kind of talent. At 6'6 and 227 pounds, he's the type of physical specimen that NFL GM's drool over. He torched SDSU for 161 yards and a touchdown last week, and was the second leading receiver in the FCS last year with 57 catches for 1467 yards and 18 touchdowns. As his ridiculous 25.7 yards per catch average indicates, this guy defines the term "big play receiver."
PREDICTION
There's no doubt going up against Cal Poly's explosive offense will be a stiff test for the largely untested Griz defense. The inexperienced Griz corners will be lining up across some big play receivers. The three new starting linebackers will have to do what last year's veteran group couldn't do against Wofford - help contain the option. The Griz still haven't announced who will start at kicker, but there's a good chance whoever it is will be called on to make a big kick or two. The atmosphere at Cal Poly is not up to par with that at Washington-Grizzly Stadium, but it'll still be a hostile environment and that will make things tougher.
All that being said, I'm going to have to be a homer here (although that doesn't make much sense since I'm from Boston) and pick the Griz. I think Bergquist will have a huge game and while the defense wont stop the Mustangs O, there's a lot of playmakers on that side of the ball and they'll come up with a big play at the right time. This is my second football season in Missoula and the only game I've ever seen the Griz lose is against Wofford, so it's hard for me to pick against them right now.
Montana 27, Cal Poly 24. Should be a good one. Enjoy the game
~ Varun
varun@maxmontana.com
