As promised, since the Cats are off today, here's my preseason conference poll. The top five are going to be VERY competitive with each other... I definitely don't see any Big Sky team going undefeated in conference play this season. There's too much parity. I'm pretty confident in my #1 pick, but 2-5 could finish anywhere in that stretch. Here we go:
1) EASTERN WASHINGTON
The Eagles return 15 starters to a team that had a huge turnaround last year (3-8 in 2006, 9-4 2007), and played its best football at the end of the season, as evidenced by a 44-15 drumming of previously undefeated McNeese St in the opening round of the FCS playoffs and then a close 38-35 quarterfinals loss to future FCS champ Appalachian St. EW has the best offense hands-down in the Big Sky, and it's led by two juniors: QB Matt Nichols and WR Aaron Boyce. With all the focus on the passing game, senior RB Dale Morris gets lost in the shuffle, and he shouldn't - nearly 1000 yards and 12 touchdowns last season. On the defensive side of the ball, senior DE Greg Peach along with senior DT Lance Witherspoon are strong candidates for 1st Team All-Conference at season's end. New head coach Beau Baldwin has a lot to work with.
2) NORTHERN ARIZONA
The dynamic backfield of senior QB Lance Kriesien and junior RB Alex Henderson returns to wreck havoc on Big Sky defenses again. The pair combined for 1585 rushing yards and 14 touchdowns last season. Lionel Scott with his 747 MORE rushing yards and 9 MORE rushing touchdowns is gone, so that production will need to come from elsewhere. Leading receiver Alex Watson and his 63 catches are also gone, so big 225lb senior TE Shaun Fitzpatrick and 6'3" junior WR Ryan Rauschert have to step up. NAU's defense was questionable at times last year, as most clearly evidenced by a 38-9 loss at Sacramento State, but expect K.J. Gerard, who led the Big Sky with 6 INTs last season, to have another big year. All teams ranked 2-5 in my poll have questions, but what separates NAU from the rest of the field is special teams. Senior K Robbie Dehaze is a consistent kicker with a big leg and senior Cyrus Igono blocks kicks like it's his job... cause it is.
3) MONTANA STATE
Nearly the entire MSU offense has questions. Who's gonna play quarterback and will he be effective? Will the offensive line struggle to run-block as it did too often last year? Will a real wide receiver please step up? Can Demetrius Crawford shoulder the load if Aaron Mason gets injured yet again? My answers are this -- Mark Iddins but don't expect 270 yards a game, at times just like last year, not unless DeSean Thomas gets considerable playing time, and yes Crawford will do just fine (he may be small, but he's built like a truck. If he gets seriously injured or fatigued, I'll be surprised). The Cats strength is defense. The unit has three Preseason All-Big Sky performers in senior LB Bobby Daly, junior DE Dane Fletcher, and junior S Kevin Retoriano. The front seven proposes so many matchup problems with offenses, so that will help out two new starting corners replacing Michael Beach and Kory Austin. Special Teams wise, junior Eric Fisher is a solid punter, but more consistency at the placekicking position is needed from either Fisher or freshman Jason Cunningham.
4) MONTANA
When you've had a share of 10 straight conference titles, it's very hard to rank you down at 4th in a preseason poll, but as Varun has said in his blogs, 10-12 freshmen should get a lot of playing time. With Coach Bobby Hauck relying that much on the young guys, I can't put UM any higher than fourth right now. Also, when I spoke with Hauck at a spring scrimmage, he said to me clear as day "we plain don't have a good football team right now". That might be coach speak, but hey, I can use that as a reason to put UM this low to start out. I expect junior QB Cole Bergquist will be very good in his second full year as a starter, and he could even rival Matt Nichols for best QB in the conference. However, replacing the production of departed runningback Lex Hilliard will be impossible. On defense, former walk-on now senior S Colt Anderson is the leader of this team, and he'll have to be with several corners coming in with zero college football experience.
5) WEBER STATE
I wouldn't be surprised at all to see Weber State in the top three in conference at season's end. They have a ton of potential. Sophomore QB Cameron Higgins came on at the end of last season, and from what I've read, his fall camp has been electric (as evidenced by a 12 of 13, 117yd, 3TD performance in the team's most recent scrimmage). He has a fantastic, albeit short target in 5'7" senior Bryant Eteuati who can also return kicks more than adequately. Junior WR Tim Toone is a bit larger at 5'10", and had 10 receiving TDs last year. Still, the Wildcats offense moves through junior RB Trevyn Smith - over 1300 yards and 7 scores last season. Smith had six consecutive 100 yard games last season, three of those over 175 yards. Defense is where the questions arise for Weber -- the unit gave up nearly 30 points per game, but some of that is skewed because of giving up 68 against Portland State and 56 to Boise State. The potential: the Wildcats held UM to just 18 last year. Senior DT Bryce Scanlon will have to step up his leadership game to help make the team more consistent.
6) IDAHO STATE
I've heard Idaho State as a sexy, Eastern Washington-esque turnaround pick this season. I don't see that happening. Their offense should be better, but the defense is too weak to compete for a top spot in this conference. We'll discuss the offense first. Sophomore QB Rich Hill is coming off what can only be described as a "learning campaign" his freshman year, and he will be better. But performances like three interceptions against Portland State will still creep in. Junior RB Clint Knickrem will step into a full-time roll with the departure of Josh Barnett, and I see that as an upgrade. Barnett was a good slasher, but Knickrem at 220 will pound on defenses all day long, tire them out, and then open up the door for Hill to hit receivers like Preseason All-Big Sky first team-er senior Eddie Thompson. He had 83 catches last year, three times with double digit receptions and two more 9 catch days. On defense, I don't see much other than 34 points allowed per game in Big Sky play. Unacceptable, even with an offense that should be better than last year.
7) PORTLAND STATE
Sophomore QB Drew Hubel and junior QB Jimmy Collins will compete for the starting role, but I expect Hubel to come out on top. It was clear to me last year coach Jerry Glanville really liked him when we spoke, so I expect him to win the job. Overall, this a rebuilding year for the Vikings -- their top two pass catchers in Tremayne Kirkland and Kennith Mackins are gone. Their top two rushers in Olaniyi Sobomehin and Ronnie Fa'avae are gone. Junior FB Bobby McClintock is back and a 1st Team Preseason All-Conference guy, but this offense won't be as explosive as it was last year. Still, you can't sleep on the run-and-shoot.
8) SACRAMENTO STATE
In retrospect, I should have picked Sac State over at least PSU and maybe ISU as well. Last year's freshman backfield of QB Jason Smith and RB Bryan Hilliard are now sophomores, and a year better. Smith specifically should improve -- in his first seven games last season, he only threw three touchdowns. In his final four games, he had seven touchdowns. Defensively, the linebackers are the strength of the team with seniors Cyrus Mulitalo and Mike Brannon. If there's one player in my mind who could challenge Bobby Daly in this conference for most tackles, it would be Mulitalo. Sac State always plays better at home than they do on the road, so that will hurt them in the big scheme of things, but I'd also expect an upset over either Weber or MSU.
9) NORTHERN COLORADO
No surprise as to UNC being ranked here. They're still years away from competing in the Big Sky. That win against MSU last year should give the team a pinch more confidence at least. They have an outside shot at beating Idaho State, but I think the Bears go winless in the Big Sky this season.
Those are my rankings. I'll try to get back out to the MSU practice field tomorrow afternoon for another camp update. My schedule this weekend is a little crazy, so we'll see how much I can get done.
~ Dave
dave@maxmontana.com
